As Ukraine bleeds, American cartoonist Bill Waterson's above comic strip from the 1990s continues to be valid even today. Apparently, to quote the German philosopher George Hegel, "The only thing that we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history." Today, at the time of writing this blog, it's Day 7 of the full-scale Russian invasion or so-called “special military operation” on Ukraine, and we see no signs of de-escalation on the ground. According to United Nations estimates, a million refugees have fled to nearby countries like Poland, Moldova, and Hungary, while a thousand civilian and military casualties have been reported from both sides. Amidst massive bombings and missile strikes, visuals from Kyiv and Kharkiv look terribly disturbing. We are into a severe humanitarian crisis!

What does History reflect about the current conflict?

●      A Stormy relationship: The cultural ties between Russia & Ukraine date back to the 9th century Kyivan Rus rule in Eastern and Northern Europe. Ukraine remained under the Russian Empire and thereafter the USSR with a brief exception of independence during 1917. It was after the disintegration of the USSR in 1991 when Ukraine declared its independence. Russian ethnic population occupies a considerable proportion of Eastern Ukraine, and the Russian language, although not official, is widely spoken in Ukraine. Owing to the historical and cultural ties, Russian President Vladimir Putin has long been claiming rights over Ukrainian territory.

 ●      NATO's Expansion: NATO is a military alliance of 28 European countries with USA & Canada. It holds the responsibility for the collective security of the member countries. 3 of the NATO members, namely, Britain, France, and USA possess nuclear weapons. As more countries like Latvia & Lithuania joined the alliance, it brought the NATO forces an inch closer to the Russian border.

 ●      Annexation of Crimea:

(Image Source: The Economist)

It was in Russia's interest not to have Ukraine as a NATO member. After the fall of the pro-Russian government in 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula of Ukraine, taking advantage of the political turmoil. The same year, Russia backed separatist forces in the Donbas region of Ukraine, declaring two new independent republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, respectively. Subsequently, there has been a constant tussle between the Russian & Ukrainian governments for controls over these regions. Minsk agreements were signed between the two parties with an aim to resolve the conflict. However, both of them couldn’t hold the agreements for longer.

 Why did Russia invade Ukraine?

NATO's eastward expansion and annexation of the Crimean peninsula remain the key reasons for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, experts cite some more geopolitical interests that forced Russia to take such drastic steps.

Desire to regain Ancient Glory: In the eyes of president Putin, Ukraine is still part of the former Soviet Republic. He refers to the two countries as essentially the same historical and spiritual place. Thus, the current invasion also seems an extension of his idea of One Russia.

Resource-rich Ukraine: Ukraine is rich in resources and a highly industrialized nation. It has 2nd biggest natural gas reserves in Europe and much of it remains untapped. It's imperative that the Russian dictator may also have an interest in the Oil and Gas reserves of Ukraine.

The Russian Version: Russia accuses the Ukrainian government of having perpetrated bloody crimes against Civilians, including some Russians in the Donbas region of Ukraine. Hence according to Putin, the military operation is to denazify the Ukrainian territory. However, scholars have refuted these claims.

The Immediate Cause: The military build-up near the Ukrainian border had already started in the last quarter of 2021. In December 2021, Putin deployed extensive troops demanding the non-inductance of Ukraine into NATO. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also had a crackdown on the country's wealthy oligarchs, some of whom were close to Putin.

On February 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized Luhansk and Donetsk as independent nations by sending Russian troops to the region as 'Peacekeepers.' 3 days later, he launched a full-scale invasion of the Ukrainian territory.

What's the Present Day Scenario?

(Image Source: The Guardian)

As seen on the map, the Russian army has invaded Ukraine from 3 sides and explosions have been reported from prominent cities such as Kyiv and Kharkiv. Their attack looks stronger from the Eastern and Southern sides while the Ukrainians have successfully defended the capital, Kyiv, till now. 

How did the world react to this Invasion?

Economic Sanctions: Most of the resistance to the Russian invasion came in the form of economic sanctions from the Western powers. US sanctions were aimed to cripple Russian financial institutions and its economy. Germany halted the approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that was built to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany. Several other sanctions came from Canada, Australia, Japan, EU, Germany, and other nations. Although, experts argue that Russia has already been preparing in anticipation of the sanctions.

Aid, Solidarity & Protests: Financial and military assistance in the form of aid, air defense rockets, lethal weapons have poured in for Ukraine. Non-military assistance, including fuel and medical services, has also been provided to Ukraine. Statements of solidarity from various international organizations of multiple fields also made it to the headlines. Large-scale anti-war protests have also been reported in almost all corners of the world, including St. Petersburg, Russia.

Individual Heroic Stories: Amidst the attacks and shelling, thousands of ordinary Ukrainian citizens took up arms despite no prior exposure to weapons. The Ukrainian government distributed weapons to its citizens to defend their nation. Several Russian celebrities, including former world chess champion Garry Kasparov and 2021's Nobel peace prize laureate Dmitry Muratov, openly condemned Putin's act of aggression. Sunflower, Ukraine's national flower, became a symbol of mass protests across Ukraine. An image of a Ukrainian woman offering sunflower seeds to a Russian soldier won hearts on social media.

Global Economic Impact & What lies ahead?

The ongoing war has given a major blow to the world economy. Crude oil prices have taken a 15% leap since the invasion has started. Russia provides nearly 40% of Europe's natural gas imports and is also a leading exporter of Wheat & Fertilizers. 75% of the world's total Sunflower oil exports are supplied by Russia & Ukraine. The transport sector already took a hit during the pandemic, and the war is going to worsen the case. The conflict can again stall the recovery of the global supply chain, which had started showing signs of revival. Some of the Stock Markets also plunged as the tanks headed towards Ukraine.

 The devastation caused during the past week is beyond our imagination. Experts predict that the Russian troops will continue their aggression till the surrender of the Ukrainian forces or the fall of major cities. Hence, international cooperation seems imminent to stop further de-escalation of the conflict. History has time and again proved that wars are cruel, barbaric, and a stain on human civilization. Diplomatic channels shall always take precedence over warmongering. We hope our world leaders understand this & the planet comes to peace soon!

- Vishwajeet Gudadhe